- Maya
- The full count is in, and Israel's two big blocs are still well short of a majority.
- Daniel
- And Likud is now alleging that the election was stolen through fraud in Arab towns.
- Maya
- This is Good Morning, Israel from baba News. It's Thursday, October twenty-ninth. I'm Maya.
- Daniel
- And I'm Daniel.
- Maya
- Yesterday we had the exit polls. Now the regular ballots are counted. Where do things stand?
- Daniel
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc has fifty-three seats. The change bloc, led by former I D F Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, has forty-eight.
- Maya
- And the magic number is still sixty-one.
- Daniel
- Right, a majority in the one hundred and twenty seat Knesset. Neither side is close. The Arab parties hold nineteen seats.
- Maya
- So add it up and nobody gets there without someone they'd rather not sit with.
- Daniel
- Exactly. A minority government looks very hard to build. The realistic options being discussed are a unity government, or another election.
- Maya
- Is the count actually finished, though?
- Daniel
- Not quite. The Central Elections Committee is still counting hundreds of thousands of double envelopes, those ballots cast outside people's usual polling stations.
- Maya
- The soldiers, the hospital patients and so on.
- Daniel
- Right. Final results are expected by Friday. And those envelopes could make a real difference for the ultra-Orthodox parties, the Haredi parties, especially Shas.
- Maya
- Why Shas in particular?
- Daniel
- In a race this tight, a single seat moving between parties can change who has leverage in coalition talks. So the smaller parties are watching those envelopes very closely.
- Maya
- And while the envelopes get opened, the blocs are already maneuvering.
- Daniel
- Leaders of the change bloc are meeting to coordinate strategy. Netanyahu is in talks with his right-wing partners.
- Maya
- Which brings us to the accusation that's dominating the morning.
- Daniel
- The Likud party is accusing Arab parties of stealing the election through criminal offenses, bribery and fraud.
- Maya
- What exactly is Likud claiming?
- Daniel
- Likud says there was cash, ballot stuffing and voter fraud at polling stations in Arab communities. It's submitting what it says are hundreds of testimonies and pieces of evidence to the authorities.
- Maya
- And it's going further than fraud.
- Daniel
- It is. Likud alleges the goal was to support terror and to eliminate the Jewish state. Those are Likud's claims, and they haven't been tested by any investigation yet.
- Maya
- So what is it asking for?
- Daniel
- A comprehensive investigation by the police and the Shin Bet, Israel's internal security service.
- Maya
- The Shin Bet, for an election complaint. That's unusual.
- Daniel
- It reflects how seriously Likud is framing it, as a security matter, not just a ballot dispute. Whether the authorities open that kind of investigation is the next thing to watch.
- Maya
- Does it change the numbers?
- Daniel
- Not on its own. But nineteen Arab seats is a big part of why neither bloc reaches sixty-one. So if Likud's claims were ever upheld, the math could look very different. For now, it's an allegation.
- Maya
- Now the man who has to make sense of all this. President Isaac Herzog.
- Daniel
- Israel's president is mostly ceremonial, but after an election he has one big job. He consults the parties and chooses who gets the first shot at forming a government.
- Maya
- And what did he say on Wednesday?
- Daniel
- He urged the parties to avoid another election, and to come into coalition talks with what he called an open mind.
- Maya
- That's a polite way of saying, please start talking to people you've spent the campaign insulting.
- Daniel
- Pretty much. He'll start those consultations once he gets the official results next week.
- Maya
- And then a clock starts.
- Daniel
- Right. The candidate he chooses gets a mandate with deadlines attached. If nobody manages to put together a majority, the end of that road is new elections.
- Maya
- And voters showed up in huge numbers to get here.
- Daniel
- The record turnout we told you about yesterday, seventy-seven point seven percent, is now the official picture. Herzog pointed out it's the highest since nineteen ninety-nine.
- Maya
- The markets reacted fast, and not happily.
- Daniel
- No. On Wednesday Tel Aviv stocks fell sharply. The T A one twenty-five index, the main benchmark, dropped two point five percent.
- Maya
- And the shekel?
- Daniel
- It weakened two point two percent against the dollar. The dollar rose to about three point one zero shekels. Construction stocks led the decline.
- Maya
- That's a reversal, isn't it?
- Daniel
- It is. Earlier there were gains. Investors had been hoping for a clear result, and some for a change of government they thought could improve Israel's international relations.
- Maya
- So what's spooking them now?
- Daniel
- The length of the uncertainty. Coalition talks could drag on for months. And another election is a real possibility.
- Maya
- Abroad now, to a suspected terror attack at Israel's embassy in Serbia.
- Daniel
- Serbian authorities are investigating it as a terrorist attack. Overnight, an attacker armed with a knife, shouting Allahu Akbar, lightly wounded a Serbian police officer guarding the Israeli Embassy in Belgrade, the Serbian capital.
- Maya
- And the attacker?
- Daniel
- He was killed by police. No Israeli embassy staff were harmed.
- Maya
- How is Serbia responding?
- Daniel
- It has raised its national terror threat level to the highest level.
- Maya
- And this isn't the first time at that address.
- Daniel
- No. There was a similar attack at the same location in June. So twice in a matter of months, Israel's embassy in Belgrade has been targeted.
- Maya
- Which says a lot about the threat Israeli missions face around the world.
- Daniel
- It does. And it's the local officer at the door who took the blow this time.
- Maya
- To Iran, where there's a surprising new twist. Yesterday it was the Gulf preparing for war. Today, a letter.
- Daniel
- According to U S officials, Vice President J D Vance has opened a secret diplomatic channel with Iran. He sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, aiming to restart negotiations.
- Maya
- Wait, while the President is threatening strikes?
- Daniel
- Right at the same time. U S officials say the letter was sent at President Donald Trump's direction, to look for common ground and avoid renewed military operations.
- Maya
- Which isn't exactly what Trump has been saying in public.
- Daniel
- No, publicly he's taken a stance against negotiations. On a possible strike, he said, everything is possible.
- Maya
- So, one hand writing letters, the other loading the launchers.
- Daniel
- That's the picture. The U S military is moving missile defense systems and replenishing ammunition. And as we told you yesterday, the Gulf states have been told to prepare for a short, intense operation after the midterm elections.
- Maya
- Where does Israel fit?
- Daniel
- Israel has also reportedly prepared operational plans. Some experts question whether further strikes could fully dismantle Iran's nuclear program, or bring about regime change.
- Maya
- And Tehran?
- Daniel
- It's threatening severe retaliation against economic and civilian targets if it's attacked. That's a regime openly saying it would go after civilians, which is exactly why Israel treats it as its main threat.
- Maya
- And whoever ends up leading Israel will inherit all of this.
- Daniel
- Probably before the coalition talks are even finished.
- Maya
- So, the thing to watch. The double envelope count is due to wrap up by tomorrow, Friday, and that's when we find out whether Shas or anyone else gains or loses a seat.
- Daniel
- Follow Good Morning, Israel so tomorrow's episode is waiting for you.
- Maya
- See you tomorrow morning.