24 hoursGUARDED
20%
Guarded
chance of a wide siren wave, next 24h
1 hour
3%
24 hours
20%
7 days
45%
30 days
74%
why this numberlog-odds
- ▲Home Front Command: stay near shelters
- ▲Iran: attack declared imminent
- ▼No wide waves in the last week
- ▼No siren waves of any size in the last 24 hours
- ▼No wide waves in the last 30 days
- ▲Gaza: attack declared imminent
arenas on the wireread 16:00
Iran4imminent · 100 stories / 24h · 636 / 7d
Lebanon1quiet · 23 stories / 24h · 280 / 7d
Yemen1quiet · 18 stories / 24h · 267 / 7d
Gaza4imminent · 243 stories / 24h · 1334 / 7d
HFC posture3shelter
levels: quiet · rhetoric · concrete threat · imminent · under way, read hourly from the last 24h of coverage. story counts are how much the wire wrote, not the threat.
prediction marketspolymarket
24h trend–
base rate
0 wide waves / 30d
last wide wave
106d ago · 458 localities
track record
24h number +0% vs base rate over 131 scored forecasts