24 hoursLOW
6%
Low
chance of a wide siren wave, next 24h
1 hour
<1%
24 hours
6%
7 days
14%
30 days
33%
why this numberlog-odds
- ▼No wide waves in the last week
- ▼No siren waves of any size in the last 24 hours
- ▼No wide waves in the last 30 days
- ▲Lebanon: attack declared imminent
- ▲1 siren wave of any size in the last week
- ▲Yemen: threats in general terms
arenas on the wireread 22:00
Iran2rhetoric · 165 stories / 24h · 772 / 7d
Lebanon4imminent · 98 stories / 24h · 615 / 7d
Yemen2rhetoric · 43 stories / 24h · 180 / 7d
Gaza1quiet · 313 stories / 24h · 1747 / 7d
HFC posture0unchanged
levels: quiet · rhetoric · concrete threat · imminent · under way, read hourly from the last 24h of coverage. story counts are how much the wire wrote, not the threat.
prediction marketspolymarket
24h trend5% – 14%
base rate
0 wide waves / 30d
last wide wave
129d ago · 458 localities
track record
24h number +0% vs base rate over 3323 scored forecasts