24 hoursLOW
4%
Low
chance of a wide siren wave, next 24h
1 hour
<1%
24 hours
4%
7 days
10%
30 days
25%
why this numberlog-odds
- ▼No wide waves in the last week
- ▼No siren waves of any size in the last 24 hours
- ▼No wide waves in the last 30 days
- ▲Iran: concrete threat or preparations reported
- ▲Lebanon: threats in general terms
- ▼No wide waves in the last 3 days
arenas on the wireread 12:00
Iran3concrete · 82 stories / 24h · 574 / 7d
Lebanon2rhetoric · 19 stories / 24h · 160 / 7d
Yemen1quiet · 1 stories / 24h · 10 / 7d
Gaza1quiet · 65 stories / 24h · 419 / 7d
HFC posture0unchanged
levels: quiet · rhetoric · concrete threat · imminent · under way, read hourly from the last 24h of coverage. story counts are how much the wire wrote, not the threat.
prediction marketspolymarket
24h trend3% – 5%
base rate
0 wide waves / 30d
last wide wave
151d ago · 458 localities
track record
skill unverified: no wide wave in the scoring window